A few hours away from the new presidential election, all the "mainstream" polls seem to show that Joe Biden would be the next president of the United States of America. However, within the blockchain-based prediction markets, the situation is a little different. Trump would be the winner.
Vitalik's vision on the predictions of the American elections
Indeed Vitalik, through his tweets, emphasizes that this difference would be the consequence of a different approach.
He formulates three hypotheses:
The first is that classic survey pools do not take into account intentional or unintentional errors that may occur. They are based only on a statistical model and assume that the voting process in elections is fair.
The second is that conventional prediction markets would not be liquid enough to be truly representative.
The third point, and not the least of which he eventually withdrew, is that analysts and polling firms would be nothing more than "inveterate morons". He added that they would not have learned from their mistakes and unexpected pro-Trump citizens in the 2016 election.
The only thing we know for sure after these elections is that the winner will be Bitcoin
The future president of the United States will have an impact on the international politics of the country and on the lives of its citizens that today remains uncertain. Indeed, despite the programs they may have presented, it is impossible today to know how the population will react. The pro-Trump speaks of riots in the event of Joe Biden's victories. At the time of this writing we are at 238 electors for Joe Biden and 213 for Donald Trump. It is recalled that whoever reaches the number of 270 electors will be elected. The only thing that seems certain is that Bitcoin (BTC) will grow as a result of this election.
Perhaps Vitalik Buterin's rant would hide his disappointment at not seeing his alternative to the conventional voting process used. Indeed with his collaborator Glen Weyl they have developed a procedure called "quadratic voting" which would be a fairer solution. A real question arises around these debates, to what extent is the population influenced during elections? We remember the polemic around Facebook in 2016 which would have oriented the contents of a part of its users to favor Trump. Are we going to witness new shocking revelations in the post-election period?
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