In early August 2023, Bloomberg ETF specialists Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart estimated a 65% probability for the approval of a spot bitcoin ETF. However, as August draws to its conclusion, and in light of a U.S. court siding with Grayscale over a legal tussle against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the pair have revised their prediction, now pegging the likelihood at 75%.
SEC Decision Looms for Seven Spot Bitcoin ETFs
Barring any delays, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is poised to either greenlight or turn down seven distinct proposals for a spot bitcoin ETF. These applications hail from notable names like Blackrock, Wisdomtree, Valkyrie, Fidelity, Vaneck, Bitwise, and Invesco. Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst, Balchunas, conveyed that he and Seyffart have adjusted the odds from their earlier forecast.
“James Seyffart [and] I are upping our odds to 75% of spot bitcoin ETFs launching this yr (95% by end of ’24),” Balchunas posted to the social media platform X (formally Twitter). “While we factored Grayscale win into our prev 65% odds, the unanimity [and] decisiveness of ruling was beyond expectations and leaves SEC w ‘very little wiggle room’ via [Elliott Z. Stein].” The ETF analyst added:
Beyond the legal loss, there is also the PR loss (which matters [because] it sets narratives, [and] changes minds). And this got covered far and wide in mainstream media incl NYT, WSJ, CNN, AP, ABC [and] on and on. We think the legal and PR loss will combine to make denial politically untenable.
The ETF experts’ opinions follow a D.C. court’s decision siding with Grayscale, the largest crypto asset manager, in its legal battle against the SEC’s refusal to transition GBTC to a spot bitcoin ETF. Balchunas added that, given the recent ruling, he and Seyffart wouldn’t be taken aback if the SEC opts for a delay. Nevertheless, he believes the exact timing may be less pivotal; it’s more conceivable that one morning we’ll find out the SEC has relented and a launch is on the horizon.
What do you think about the two ETF analysts increasing the odds of a spot bitcoin ETF getting approval from the SEC? Share your thoughts and opinions about this subject in the comments section below.