Gemini Is Shrinking. The Winklevoss Twins Finally Admit Defeat Overseas

They tried to conquer Europe. It didn't work.

Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss — the Harvard rowers turned crypto billionaires turned would-be global exchange operators — announced Thursday that Gemini is pulling out of the UK, the EU, and Australia entirely. About 200 people will lose their jobs. That's a quarter of the company.

The timing isn't subtle. Gemini's stock has been bleeding for months — down 85% from its peak, with a $159.5 million quarterly loss posted in its first-ever earnings report. The twins had no choice but to cut deep.

"These markets have proven hard to win," they wrote in a company blog post, which is corporate-speak for we burned through too much cash trying to comply with 27 different regulatory regimes and got nothing for it.

Starting March 5, customers in the affected regions can only withdraw funds. By April, the doors close completely. Gemini struck a deal with eToro to migrate accounts, though how smooth that transition proves remains to be seen.

Here's the twist: the Winklevosses aren't just retreating. They're pivoting — hard. They claim artificial intelligence has made their engineers so productive they simply need fewer of them. More strikingly, they're betting the farm on prediction markets, insisting these could eventually dwarf today's capital markets.

Bold call. Or desperate one. Depends who you ask.

The crypto press release version frames this as strategic clarity. The numbers tell a different story. When you close three continents and fire 200 people, you're not optimizing — you're surviving.

Gemini shares dropped another 4% after hours.

What Actually Happens to Your Account

European, British, and Australian users have until March 5 to trade normally. After that, withdrawals only. Full shutdown: April 5. eToro's handling migrations, but check your email for specifics — Gemini hasn't published detailed timelines yet.

Why Now?

Regulatory costs in Europe have exploded post-MiCA. The UK keeps changing its mind on crypto rules. Australia was always a side project. Meanwhile, the US — despite its own chaos — offers clearer paths to actual profits, especially if you're plugged into political networks. (The twins have donated millions to Republican campaigns, including Trump's.)

What's a Prediction Market?

Think betting on election outcomes, Fed decisions, or whether Tesla hits delivery targets — but regulated, exchange-traded, and supposedly more efficient than polling or analyst estimates. Polymarket proved the concept works. Gemini wants in.

Whether retail traders follow them there is the open question.

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