Why One Analyst Sees Solana Poised for a Long-Term Twentyfold Surge

 

LONDON — Solana (SOL) may still be trading near depressed levels after months of market volatility, but at least one major institutional analyst believes the blockchain’s next growth phase could ultimately reshape its valuation trajectory.

In a recent research note, Geoffrey Kendrick, global head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, outlined a scenario in which Solana evolves beyond its reputation as a memecoin-heavy network into a backbone for AI-driven micropayments and large-scale digital commerce. If that transition succeeds, Kendrick argues, the long-term upside could be substantial.

At current prices around $100, Solana remains well below its historical highs. Yet Kendrick projects a move to $250 by the end of 2026, before accelerating further toward $2,000 by 2030, implying a potential twentyfold increase from current levels over the decade.

From memecoins to payments infrastructure

A key pillar of the thesis lies in changing on-chain activity. Data show that decentralized exchange (DEX) flows on Solana are gradually shifting away from speculative memecoin trading toward SOL–stablecoin pairs, a sign of more transactional usage.

While nearly half of Solana’s network fees in 2025 were still generated by memecoin activity, Kendrick notes that ultra-low transaction costs — often less than one cent per transfer — give Solana a structural advantage in handling micropayments, especially those driven by AI-to-AI interactions.

One example cited is x402, a payments processor already settling transactions as small as six cents, something that remains economically unviable on most competing blockchains.

Stablecoins and institutional signals

Beyond payments, stablecoin turnover on Solana has now surpassed Ethereum on several metrics, according to on-chain analytics platforms. That shift strengthens the argument that Solana is increasingly being used as a settlement layer, rather than purely a speculative playground.

Institutional flows also appear to be aligning with this narrative. Since October 2025, the Bitwise BSOL ETF has reportedly absorbed around 78% of net inflows into Solana-linked ETFs, suggesting growing appetite among professional investors despite recent price weakness.

At the same time, event-based derivatives markets reflect a wide distribution of outcomes. Traders currently assign roughly a 30% probability that SOL falls below $40, but also a 41% chance it exceeds $200, underscoring how sensitive Solana’s future remains to adoption at scale.

A long road, with clear risks

Standard Chartered’s long-term forecast remains conditional. Kendrick stresses that Solana’s upside depends on sustained developer adoption, reliable network performance, and its ability to convert AI-related experimentation into real economic throughput.

Under his base-case scenario, SOL could reach $400 in 2027, $700 in 2028, and $1,200 in 2029, before approaching $2,000 by 2030. Failure to broaden usage beyond speculation, however, could leave the token range-bound for years.

For now, Solana sits at a crossroads — caught between short-term market pressure and a longer-term vision that, if realized, could fundamentally alter its role in the digital asset ecosystem.

FAQs

Why does Standard Chartered believe Solana has long-term upside?
The bank points to low transaction fees, rising stablecoin usage, and Solana’s suitability for AI-driven micropayments.

Is Solana still dependent on memecoins?
Memecoins remain significant, but DEX activity is increasingly shifting toward stablecoin trading pairs, indicating broader use cases.

What is the short-term price outlook for SOL?
Standard Chartered forecasts $250 by end-2026, though volatility remains high.

What could push Solana toward $2,000 by 2030?
Widespread adoption for payments, AI transactions, and increased institutional allocation.

What are the main risks?
Network reliability, competition from other blockchains, and failure to convert innovation into sustained economic activity.

Video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2itol6xtloc

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