Guest on CNBC on Monday, JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon anticipates that inflation will remain well above the Fed's 2% target in 2022 and is therefore betting on more than 4 inflation hikes. central bank rate this year, which will cause more volatility.
Not known to take tweezers, the strong man of the most powerful financial institution on the planet (JP Morgan and its valuation of 500 billion dollars) did not deviate from his habits during a long interview granted to CNBC this Monday. If Jamie Dimon did not attack bitcoin this time (which he considers worthless and which he has even already described as "fraud") or the Chinese Communist Party ( whose decline he predicted before that of JP Morgan ), he questioned the monetary policy of the Fed.
While the central bank is sticking to a scenario of three rate hikes in 2022 for the time being, Jamie Dimon judges for his part that the economy is generating so much inflation that the institution may have to raise interest rates. short-term interest more than four times this year. "I would be personally surprised if there are only four increases," he said, judging that "four increases of 25 basis points (therefore of 1 percentage point in total, editor's note) constitute a very , very weak and very easy to absorb for the economy". It is "possible that inflation is worse than what people think" he argues to justify his position, he who sees the rise in consumer prices (which reached 7.0% in December in the United States). United, a record since 1982,
Towards heightened volatility
The man who has been at the head of the largest American bank since 2005, and whom his board of directors is trying to retain even more , is nevertheless betting on particularly robust growth in the American economy in 2022. “We are going to have the strongest growth since the Great Depression in 2021, so I think 2022 will also be a very good year, in continuity. Among the elements that should fuel this vigorous continuation of the economic recovery, Jamie Dimon cites pell-mell household savings at a record level, the increase in wages or that of the value of real estate.
However, he warns investors that volatility should be exacerbated by future rate hikes, regardless of the trajectory of the US economy. “We expect the market to be very volatile this year as rates rise and operators re-evaluate their projections focusing on the implications for businesses of these rate hikes,” said Jamie Dimon.
Note that this interview was given a few days after experts from JP Morgan, but also those from Goldman Sachs or Deutsche Bank, adjusted their scenario to favor 4 rate hikes by the Fed in 2022, compared to 3 previously.
This Friday, on the sidelines of JP Morgan's record but slightly disappointing annual results, as weak trading activity led to lower profits in the 4th quarter, Jamie Dimon again caused a stir on Wall Street by saying he now expects to "6, even 7 rate hikes in 2022".
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