Cardano ETF Approval Odds Surge to 87% Following Grayscale's Amended SEC Filing

The investment giant's updated regulatory paperwork has significantly boosted market confidence, with prediction markets now indicating a high probability of approval for a spot Cardano fund, signaling strong momentum for a potential launch.

NEW YORK – The likelihood of a spot Cardano (ADA) ETF launching in the U.S. has surged to 87%, according to data from prediction market Polymarket. The sharp increase in market confidence follows a key regulatory move by investment giant Grayscale, which recently submitted an amended S-1 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

The approval odds jumped by 11 percentage points in just one week, recovering from a dip to 75% in late August. Analysts directly attribute this rebound to Grayscale's persistent regulatory push, which signals a strong commitment to bringing the product to market. The positive sentiment is also supported by Cardano's solid market performance, with the cryptocurrency ranking among the top digital assets by weekly returns.

The amended S-1, filed on August 29, reinforces Grayscale’s earlier 19b-4 application. If approved, the ETF would be listed on the NYSE Arca under the ticker symbol GADA. The fund is designed to hold ADA directly, tracking the CoinDesk Cardano Price Index without the use of leverage or derivatives. Grayscale has partnered with Coinbase Custody to provide institutional-grade security for the fund's assets.

This move is part of Grayscale's broader strategy to expand its suite of crypto ETFs, with the firm having filed similar paperwork for a Polkadot ETF, underscoring its long-term focus on the sector.

The SEC, which is currently handling 96 separate filings for various crypto ETFs, has extended its decision timeline for the Cardano ETF to October 26, 2025. While the delay is part of the agency's cautious approach, it has not dampened market optimism, especially following recent regulatory clarifications from the SEC that certain staking activities are not considered securities.

Despite the delay, Grayscale’s persistent regulatory push and the rising approval odds signal strong momentum, making the launch of a spot Cardano ETF appear increasingly likely.