PARIS— For the West, 2025 has become the year of a harsh awakening. While the world's eyes were fixed on traditional trade tariffs, a quieter but more lethal confrontation—the "Metals War"—reached a fever pitch. Faced with China’s near-monopoly on strategic metals, the United States and the European Union have been forced into a desperate race to secure the building blocks of the energy transition and modern defense.
The anecdote shared by Stéphane Séjourné, Vice-President of the European Commission, regarding a Brazilian mine being snapped up by American interests just days before a European bid, underscores the new reality: critical minerals are no longer just commodities—they are the new geopolitical currency. From gallium and germanium to antimony and rare earths, every link in the supply chain is now a potential battlefield.
The Weaponization of Scarcity China, which controls roughly 99% of refined gallium and 60% of germanium production, significantly escalated its pressure in late 2024 and early 2025. By implementing strict export licensing and targeting US military users, Beijing effectively "pricked" the tech bubble, sending prices for antimony—essential for ammunition and flame retardants—soaring toward $60,000 per tonne.
However, in a calculated diplomatic maneuver following a high-stakes meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in late 2025, Beijing announced a temporary suspension of its most severe export bans on gallium, germanium, and antimony. This "cooling-off period," set to last until November 27, 2026, offers brief breathing room for Western supply chains. Yet, experts warn this is a tactical de-escalation rather than a retreat; the licensing infrastructure remains intact, allowing China to reinstate a total squeeze at any moment.
Western Counter-Offensive: The Race for Sovereignty In response, the West has moved from rhetoric to direct intervention. Under the Trump administration, the U.S. government has taken the unusual step of taking direct equity stakes in domestic mining firms like MP Materials and Lithium Americas. Meanwhile, the EU has identified its first 47 strategic projects under the Critical Raw Materials Act, aiming to fast-track mines and processing plants within the bloc.
Despite these efforts, the challenge remains monumental. Developing a single mine can take 5 to 15 years, whereas China can adjust its export quotas in a matter of days. As 2026 approaches, the West finds itself in a "temporary equilibrium"—one where it is frantically building alternatives while still being tethered to a Chinese supply chain that is now explicitly used as a tool of diplomatic leverage.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Why did China suspend its export ban on strategic metals in late 2025? The suspension is widely viewed as a tactical pause following trade negotiations between Presidents Trump and Xi. It aims to reduce immediate tensions while maintaining diplomatic leverage; the restrictions are legally "suspended" but not repealed, meaning they can be reactivated before the November 2026 deadline.
What are gallium, germanium, and antimony used for? Gallium and germanium are "semiconductor workhorses" vital for high-speed microchips, 5G technology, and infrared sensors. Antimony is a critical component for the defense industry, used in ammunition primers, lead-acid batteries, and flame-retardant materials.
What is the "Trump Strategy" for critical minerals in 2025? Unlike previous administrations, the current U.S. strategy involves direct government investment in private mining companies, streamlining federal permitting, and signing exclusive bilateral deals with allies like Australia and Vietnam to build a "China-free" supply chain for refining and processing.
Can Europe really become independent in rare earths? Total independence is unlikely in the short term. While the EU is funding 47 strategic projects, it still relies on China for over 90% of its rare earth processing. The goal for 2030 is to process at least 40% of its annual consumption of strategic raw materials within the Union.
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