WASHINGTON— A confidential report by Bloomberg, whose main outlines are now circulating through global diplomatic channels, provides a stark assessment: Iran will not return to the state it was in before the uprisings of late 2025. As Tehran sinks into an unprecedented crisis of legitimacy, marked by a crackdown estimated to have claimed over 2,000 lives since December 28, three trajectories are emerging for the future of the Islamic Republic, each carrying the seeds of a brutal reshaping of the Middle East.
The first scenario, described as "transition by a strongman," envisions a total takeover by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). In this hypothesis, military leaders would sideline an old religious guard deemed out of touch with reality to establish a nationalist and pragmatic regime. This "government of national salvation" would seek a non-aggression pact with the Trump administration, trading the nuclear program for a lifting of sanctions vital for an economy where the rial has lost 50% of its value in a few months. This would mark the end of the theocracy as imagined in 1979, in favor of a more classic military autocracy.
The second hypothesis, that of "controlled decomposition," would see the regime cling to power through systemic violence at the cost of total international isolation. By transforming the country into a fortress cut off from the world—much like the digital blackout imposed since January 8—Tehran could survive in the short term. However, Bloomberg analysts warn that this strategy inevitably leads to a brutal collapse. Without economic reforms, the country risks sliding into widespread civil war where ethnic minorities and rival factions would fight for control of energy resources.
Finally, the third scenario is based on "collapse from the outside." Faced with intensifying protests and threats of surgical American strikes against nuclear infrastructure, the regime could collapse from within. This power vacuum would open the door to a transition led by exiled opposition figures, such as Reza Pahlavi, under international protectorate. This is the option preferred by some hawks in Washington, but it remains the most uncertain as the unity of the Iranian opposition remains fragile.
With the Revolutionary Guards now controlling nearly 40% of the Iranian economy, they are the only ones with the logistics necessary to maintain or break the current order. For Donald Trump, who alternates between tariff pressures and direct calls to protesters, the stakes are high: transforming the fall of the Venezuelan ally Maduro into a domino effect that would take down Tehran, without triggering a regional conflict that no one seems able to contain.
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