Smart Money Exits Nvidia: Peter Thiel and SoftBank Offload Stakes Amid Valuation Concerns


SAN FRANCISCO — A curious trend is emerging among some of the technology sector's most prominent investors. According to a 13F filing submitted on Friday, Peter Thiel’s hedge fund, Macro LLC, liquidated its entire position in Nvidia Corporation during the third quarter. While the fund is relatively small—and the stake itself was not massive in dollar terms—the move is being interpreted by Wall Street as a significant signal.

Thiel is not acting alone. The disclosure follows a similar move by Japanese investment giant SoftBank, which recently informed analysts that it had sold its entire $5.83 billion stake in the chipmaker.


The Architect of the AI Boom

Nvidia’s ascent has been the defining story of the financial markets since late 2022. The California-based chipmaker skyrocketed to prominence after OpenAI launched ChatGPT, a model trained using Nvidia’s graphics processing units (GPUs).

"Nvidia and our partners are moving fast to provide the world with the most powerful AI computing platform for those creating applications that will fundamentally transform the way we live, work, and play," Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said at the time.

Huang’s prediction proved accurate. The company’s hyper-successful H100 chip became the industry standard for training complex AI models. Last Wednesday, Nvidia reportedly became the first company to reach a market capitalization of $5 trillion. However, this astronomical rise has introduced a new problem: concerns over extreme overvaluation.


A Crowded Trade and Bubble Fears

Nvidia is no longer the sole beneficiary of the artificial intelligence wave. The world's largest technology firms—including Google, Meta, and Microsoft—have joined a digital gold rush, pouring billions into AI infrastructure. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman recently announced commitments totaling approximately $1.4 trillion over the next eight years.

Despite the spending spree, savvy investors are growing increasingly nervous about a potential bubble. Market veterans draw parallels to the Dot-com crash of 25 years ago, a collapse that ultimately wiped out $5 trillion in value. Critics argue that current valuations have become detached from reality, a sentiment that may explain the sudden exit of Macro LLC and SoftBank.


Selling the Stock, Not the Sector

Crucially, these divestments do not appear to be a vote against artificial intelligence itself. Both firms remain bullish on the sector's long-term prospects.

SoftBank clarified that it sold its Nvidia shares solely to raise liquidity for a massive $22.5 billion investment in OpenAI. Similarly, Peter Thiel continues to direct capital toward AI-centric ventures, including investments in Substrate and Cognition AI, while serving as the chairman of data analytics firm Palantir.

While Macro LLC did not provide a specific reason for the transaction, the message from the "smart money" is nuanced: AI is not going away, but the market leaders may be overheating. If the market is indeed in a bubble, analysts warn that the subsequent correction could eclipse the Dot-com bust in magnitude.


LATEST DEVELOPMENTS & MARKET CONTEXT

Diversification of AI Hardware
The exit of high-profile investors comes as the AI hardware landscape becomes increasingly competitive. While Nvidia remains dominant, major cloud providers are accelerating the development of proprietary custom silicon (ASICs) to reduce reliance on Nvidia's H100 and upcoming Blackwell chips. This shift suggests that while AI spending remains robust, the "winner-takes-all" dynamic for Nvidia may be softening.

Rotation into Software and Applications
Thiel’s pivot toward companies like Cognition AI and Palantir reflects a broader market rotation. Investors are beginning to look beyond the "picks and shovels" layer of the AI stack (hardware) and are increasingly focusing on the application layer—companies that can effectively monetize AI software and services.

Regulatory Headwinds
In addition to valuation concerns, regulatory scrutiny is intensifying. Antitrust officials in the U.S., France, and the EU have recently opened inquiries into Nvidia’s dominance in the GPU market, potentially complicating the company's future growth trajectory and adding a layer of risk for institutional holders.


FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS (FAQ)

Q: Why are major investors selling Nvidia stock?
A: Both SoftBank and Peter Thiel’s Macro LLC have exited their positions amidst growing concerns that the market is in an AI-fueled bubble and that valuations have become overextended.

Q: Does this mean these investors are bearish on Artificial Intelligence?
A: No. Both entities remain heavily invested in the AI sector. SoftBank is deploying $22.5 billion into OpenAI, while Peter Thiel continues to back companies like Palantir, Substrate, and Cognition.

Q: What is fueling the "bubble" concerns?
A: Nvidia’s market capitalization reaching the $5 trillion milestone, combined with trillion-dollar spending commitments in the sector, has drawn comparisons to the Dot-com crash of the early 2000s.

Q: Is investment in AI infrastructure slowing down?
A: No. Tech giants like Google, Meta, and Microsoft continue to invest billions of dollars into AI chips and data center infrastructure to support the technology's development.

Post a Comment

Previous Post Next Post